Home demand to be capped by slowing economy, policy uncertainty
Updated: 2012-08-07 07:14
(HK Edition)
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Residential property prices have climbed up 10.7 percent year-to-date (YTD), with transactions also up on improved investment sentiment. I believe government policy will continue to focus on demand as local end-users are still driving the market.
Looking into the second half of the year, slowing economic growth may bring down office rents and residential prices, yet residential and retail rents are likely to remain buoyant due to the home owners' reluctance to sell and the global retailers' expansion in the city.
The government's efforts to boost home supply over the past couple of years seem to be showing some effect, with overall private housing supply increasing. Housing supply accelerated in the second quarter of this year, bringing the YTD figure to 10,200, almost equivalent to the full year's number of 10,300 in 2011.
However, the YTD housing completion figure of 2,300 is only about 24 percent of the full-year figure of 9,400 units in 2011, representing only 19 percent of the government's forecast of 11,890 units for 2012, a sign that the housing completions will be faster in the second half of the year than they were in the first half. As such, private housing supply should remain healthy in the second half.
While the city's home prices are hitting record highs, the waning domestic economy and uncertainty over the new administration's policy direction could limit the upside for home prices. In this environment a 5-10 percent correction in home prices would be reasonable. However, a sharp decline in prices is unlikely as current home owners are still on low mortgage rates.
Over in the office market, further downside pressure is expected on grade-A office rents due to rising unemployment that may have a latent impact on GDP growth, possibly resulting in financial sector layoffs in the first half of 2012, as well as the relocation of large-sized multinational companies or professional firms from Central and other core business districts in Hong Kong to areas outside the CBD. These factors are likely to weigh on office demand causing vacancy rates for grade-A offices to rise.
Meanwhile, retail rents are supported by international retailers' expansion in the city. Despite the moderation in both retail sales and rents due to slower spending by mainland visitors, especially on luxury products, global retailers remain optimistic and show no signs of delaying their expansion plans here. As a result, retail rents are expected to rise 15 percent in 2012 versus the 30 percent increase last year.
The author is chief economist at CCBI. The opinions expressed here are entirely his own.
(HK Edition 08/07/2012 page2)